QIHONG RUAN 阮启宏

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./About_Me

I am Qihong Ruan (QR33@CORNELL.EDU) from the Department of Economics at Cornell University. I am interested in studying Financial Markets, Econometrics, and Emerging Technologies. I have investigated questions about retail trading and cross-predictability in the US equity markets, perpetual futures contracts and cryptocurrency market quality, using vision large models to understand financial markets, prediction markets and event contracts, high-frequency intraday trades-and-quotes (TAQ) data and liquidity premium in the Chinese A-share market, Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect, the impact of differentited dividend dax on the speculative trading in the Chinese A-share market, cryptocurrency investment in India. I excel at employing econometrics and machine learning techniques to extract critical economic insights from all kinds of data sources. I have deeply thought about and envisioned the economic issues about emerging technologies including the competition of large language models, general intelligence and social welfare, and the interplay of AI agents and blockchain.

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./Dissertation
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./Chapter_1_Retail_Trading_Network_and_Cross_Predictability_in_the_US_Equity_Market

I use Nasdaq Retail Trading Activity Tracker (RTAT) data to study the comovement of retail trading between stocks and how the retail trading correlated stock peers predict returns and microstructure metrics in the US equity markets. In the recent Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), I find that retail trading of IBIT correlates with economically meaningful peers which predicts IBIT's market dynamics. I extend my analyses to the US common equity sample, and find that higher average return of retail trading peers consistently leads to higher return, volatility, liquidity, volume, information efficiency of the focal stock. The result holds for the variations within firms and in the cross-section of firms, represented by fixed effects panel regressions and fama-macbeth regressions respectively. The result holds after controlling for price, fundamentals, sentiment, short interest, and risk variables. Further, I find that extending the peer selection space from common stocks to the entire CRSP investment universe increases the predictive power of peers' return for common stocks' market dynamics, demonstrating that conventionally omitted sample contains valuable information for forecasting asset returns and microstructure.

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./Course_Presentations
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./Writing
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./Articles

What Do We Learn From Fama-MacBeth, Fixed Effects, and OLS Regressions? - I discern the differences of estiamtes in Fama-MacBeth, Fixed Effects, and OLS regressions by math derivations and simulations with carefully designed data generating process. The findings dispell the misconceptions that Fama-MacBeth regressions can be replicated by fixed effects model with clustering errors. Fama-MacBeth regressions is an average of the estimates of a number of cross-sectional regressions and captures the cross-sectional variables. I give an example that Fama-MacBeth, Fixed-effects, and OLS regressions give three different results, and find that changing the order of adding individual fixed effects and time fixed effects can alter the sign of the estimates of fixed-effects models.

What Drives Perpeutals Funding Rates? I study the drivers of crypto perps funding rate, examine candicates from market microstructure measures from crypto markets, and external factors including dollar index, AAA, BAA, T-bill interst rate, exchange rate, LIBOR and more.

Perpetual Funding Rates, Currency Markets, and Bond Markets - I investigate the association between crypto perp funding rates and the foreign exchanges and bond markets.

Prediction Markets On Chain - Study exploring the implementation and efficiency of blockchain-based prediction markets compared to traditional prediction market mechanisms. The focus is at the markets regarding whether Bitcoin or other main cryptocurrencies will hit a price threshold. Leveraging the feature of prediction market with a clear ending date, I can examine the effectiveness of various asset pricing and market microstructure indicators.

The Impact of Forkability on Decentralized Exchange Liquidity - Research investigating how the possibility of blockchain forks powered by the open-source nature of blockchain affects liquidity provision and market efficiency in decentralized exchanges.

Convergence and Disruption: Navigating the Boundaries Between TradFi, CeFi, and DeFi in an Era of Financial Technology and Regulatory Change - A comprehensive analysis of the evolving landscape across traditional finance, centralized crypto finance, and decentralized finance.

AI Agents and Blockchain - AI and blockchains both excel at handling digital content; AI greatly improves productivity at creating digital contents, while blockchains create digital scarcity. This unique complementarity of AI and Blockchain enables the potential of Decentralized Digital Hub. AI agents running on open-source blockchain networks can dramatically reduce economic rents extracted by centralized platforms, creating community-governed models where content creators truly own their digital assets and consumers gain transparency about the AI systems they use. Key applications include AI creating digital content verified and monetized by blockchain, AI agents navigating users through DeFi protocols to build customized financial strategies, and AI agents connecting content creators with consumers in new economic models. Drawing parallels to deep learning's scaling laws, blockchain adoption will accelerate as younger generations adopt solutions with self-custody of digital assets, creating economic network effects that reshape the digital economy. I acknowledge challenges including blockchain congestion from flooding digital content and the risk of AI agents producing harmful content alongside public goods, just like the murdering smart contract depicted in The Oracles by Ari Juels. A solution is community governance and ethical development. - Ripple University Blockchain Research Initiative (UBRI) 2024

Cornell Convenes Digital Assets White Paper - In 2021, the digital asset landscape, with cryptocurrencies exceeding a $3 trillion market cap, was ripe for innovation. The journey began with President Biden’s 2022 executive order on responsible digital asset innovation, setting the stage for the Cornell Convenes Roundtable. This initiative aimed to align digital asset growth with U.S. national interests. Led by Susan Joseph of the Cornell FinTech Initiative, we gathered a diverse panel of experts from legal, industrial, regulatory, and academic backgrounds. The roundtable focused on essential topics like consumer protection, illicit finance, systemic risks, and international cooperation. Guided by experts like Professor Eswar Prasad, these discussions provided a foundation for our subsequent efforts. Post-conference, the white paper was a collaborative endeavor. Each chapter was authored by different roundtable experts, pooling together a wealth of knowledge and perspectives. My role, alongside finance PhD student Artem, Susan, and Mary, a professional writer, was to synthesize these insights into a coherent and comprehensive document. Upon publication, the white paper garnered attention from industry, academia, and the public. It serves as a crucial resource for anyone navigating this evolving field.

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./Mastering_Chinese_TAQ_Dataset

GitHub Repository: Chinese TAQ Code - SAS code for handling the Chinese TAQ database from CSMAR

Amihud Premium: The Compensation for Illiquidity or Mispricing? - Research paper using the Chinese TAQ data to compute liquidity measures

Indices of Chinese Financial Market Liquidity: 2007-2017 - Research paper using the Chinese TAQ data to construct liquidity indices

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./Business_Writing

维维健康科技有限公司商业计划书 (Weiwei Health Technology Co., Ltd. Business Plan) - Comprehensive business plan for a health technology enterprise focusing on innovative healthcare solutions.