{
 "registered_at_utc": "2026-08-13T23:01:38.523363+00:00",
 "task": "predict 20-trading-day market-adjusted (vs SPY) return, in bps, from first close after publish date",
 "models": [
  "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5",
  "x-ai/grok-4.5",
  "openai/gpt-5.4",
  "openai/gpt-5.6-sol",
  "anthropic/claude-opus-5"
 ],
 "predictions": [
  {
   "slug": "4935316-apple-a-rare-downgrade-that-has-nothing-to-do-with-ai",
   "ticker": "AAPL",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-12",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.45
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": -85.0,
     "conf": 0.38
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": -320.0,
     "conf": 0.71
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": -180.0,
     "conf": 0.64
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": -177.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4936371-after-calling-microsofts-inflection-point-heres-what-i-see-coming-next",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-13",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.68
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 60.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 102.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934979-microsoft-dont-get-too-excited-rating-downgrade",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-11",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": -50.0,
     "conf": 0.4
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": -35.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": -220.0,
     "conf": 0.7
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": -120.0,
     "conf": 0.61
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 40.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": -77.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934698-youre-underestimating-microsofts-moat",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-11",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 80.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 320.0,
     "conf": 0.67
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 30.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 110.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934637-microsoft-vs-amd-investors-may-be-watching-the-wrong-variables-panel-regression",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-11",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 80.0,
     "conf": 0.45
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 280.0,
     "conf": 0.67
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 125.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 60.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 118.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933700-microsoft-corporation-a-buy-and-hold-forever-type-of-stock",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-08",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 80.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.63
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 55.0,
     "conf": 0.56
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 40.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 78.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933698-microsoft-big-new-ai-advantage-but-beware-duration-mismatch",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-08",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 80.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.62
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.57
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 60.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 88.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933001-microsoft-no-dead-cat-bounce-here-q4-review",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-07",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 380.0,
     "conf": 0.72
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.62
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 156.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935952-nvidia-the-concentration-bear-case-has-lost-half-its-footing",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-13",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.22
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 320.0,
     "conf": 0.68
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 169.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934263-nvidia-buy-before-q2-shows-the-ai-factory-trade-is-still-early-upgrade",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-10",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 350.0,
     "conf": 0.67
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 184.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934013-nvidia-turning-ai-complexity-into-compounding-moat",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-10",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 420.0,
     "conf": 0.67
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 223.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933395-nvidia-stock-is-completely-mispriced",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-09",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 420.0,
     "conf": 0.68
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 191.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933985-sp500-eps-revenue-growth-amazon-earnings",
   "ticker": "SPX",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-10",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 0.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 0.0,
     "conf": 0.85
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 18.0,
     "conf": 0.31
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 15.0,
     "conf": 0.56
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 0.0,
     "conf": 0.6
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 6.6
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933980-amazon-stunning-earnings-reaffirms-thesis",
   "ticker": "AMZN",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-10",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 420.0,
     "conf": 0.72
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.57
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -50.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 145.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933194-amazon-throwing-spaghetti-on-the-wall-to-see-what-sticks",
   "ticker": "AMZN",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-07",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.64
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 105.0,
     "conf": 0.61
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -140.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 68.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4932872-amazon-stronger-aws-growth-meets-a-much-heavier-investment-cycle",
   "ticker": "AMZN",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-07",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 50.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": -35.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.64
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": -125.0,
     "conf": 0.61
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": -16.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935997-alphabet-strong-fundamentals-support-todays-valuation",
   "ticker": "GOOG",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-13",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.4
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.67
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 90.0,
     "conf": 0.56
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 50.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 101.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935931-wall-street-breakfast-podcast-google-trots-out-legend-to-inspire-gemini-devs",
   "ticker": "GOOG",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-13",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.57
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.54
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 87.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935248-alphabets-blowout-q2-confirmed-the-ai-stack-thesis-and-shares-are-still-undervalued",
   "ticker": "GOOG",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-12",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 420.0,
     "conf": 0.76
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.62
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 70.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 193.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934782-spacex-vs-tesla-lets-see-which-musk-stock-wins",
   "ticker": "SPCX",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-11",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 65.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 420.0,
     "conf": 0.66
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 147.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935979-micron-buried-one-sentence-about-dec-9-it-could-begin-retiring-12-percent-of-its-shares",
   "ticker": "MU",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-13",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.45
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 450.0,
     "conf": 0.64
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 221.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934102-micron-could-reclaim-its-previous-highs",
   "ticker": "MU",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-10",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 350.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.38
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 650.0,
     "conf": 0.66
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 850.0,
     "conf": 0.62
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 500.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 494.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4934468-arista-networks-hefty-growth-premium-baked-in-ai-pickshovel-status-proven-downgrade",
   "ticker": "ANET",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-11",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": -280.0,
     "conf": 0.38
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": -450.0,
     "conf": 0.69
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": -180.0,
     "conf": 0.62
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -80.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": -228.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933849-arista-networks-strong-quarterly-earnings-keeps-the-buy-thesis-intact",
   "ticker": "ANET",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-09",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 45.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 280.0,
     "conf": 0.68
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.36
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 136.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933691-why-arista-networks-is-a-buy-despite-rising-competition",
   "ticker": "ANET",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-08",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.45
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 85.0,
     "conf": 0.34
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 280.0,
     "conf": 0.69
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.58
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 175.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933664-arista-network-beating-the-incumbents",
   "ticker": "ANET",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-08",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 50.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 35.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 180.0,
     "conf": 0.64
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": 150.0,
     "conf": 0.55
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": 50.0,
     "conf": 0.3
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 93.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4933009-palantir-ai-bottleneck-moved-in-its-favor",
   "ticker": "PLTR",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-07",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.35
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 120.0,
     "conf": 0.28
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.4": {
     "bps": 650.0,
     "conf": 0.72
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "bps": -850.0,
     "conf": 0.68
    },
    "anthropic/claude-opus-5": {
     "bps": -150.0,
     "conf": 0.32
    }
   },
   "ensemble_bps": 4.0
  },
  {
   "slug": "4935437-nebius-q2-just-made-the-bull-case-stronger",
   "ticker": "NBIS",
   "pub_date": "2026-08-12",
   "preds": {
    "anthropic/claude-sonnet-5": {
     "bps": 250.0,
     "conf": 0.45
    },
    "x-ai/grok-4.5": {
     "bps": 280.0,
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 ]
}